By UN News Correspondent
12 October 2026
Nearly ten years after the historic signing of the 2016 Peace Agreement—an accord once hailed as a global blueprint for ending protracted internal conflict—Colombia finds itself at a precarious crossroads. While the foundational structures of the peace deal remain intact, a volatile security landscape and the expansion of illegal armed groups are threatening to erode the progress achieved since the silencing of the guns.
In a stark briefing to the United Nations Security Council this Monday, Miroslav Jenča, the UN’s top official in the country, issued a clear, urgent warning: the 2016 peace process is not a static achievement but a living commitment that requires renewed political will, comprehensive funding, and robust institutional coordination.
The State of Play: A Decade of Ambivalence
The 2016 agreement was designed not merely to disarm the FARC-EP rebels but to address the root causes of conflict: rural poverty, the absence of the state in peripheral regions, and the systematic exclusion of marginalized communities.
Reflecting on the progress made, Mr. Jenča acknowledged significant milestones. Mechanisms for transitional justice are functioning, victims are receiving reparations, and efforts toward rural development are underway. However, the UN envoy was candid about the "many shortcomings" that have plagued the implementation phase. He emphasized that for the peace process to survive, security policy and the peace accord must function as a unified strategy rather than competing agendas.
"We look forward to the further definition of its policies, and we stand ready to support the Government in this regard," Mr. Jenča stated, highlighting the UN Verification Mission’s nearly decade-long experience as a cornerstone for future stability.
Chronology: From 2016 to the Present
- 2016: The Colombian government and the FARC-EP sign a historic final peace agreement, ending over 50 years of armed conflict.
- 2017–2019: Initial disarmament and demobilization proceed. Early reintegration efforts show promise, but concerns grow regarding the lack of security for community leaders.
- 2020–2022: The COVID-19 pandemic and political shifts create a power vacuum in rural areas, allowing dissident groups and criminal organizations to expand their territorial control.
- 2022: Government data indicates that illegal armed groups count approximately 15,000 members.
- 2026 (Present): Armed group membership has surged to nearly 28,000. Security concerns have reached a critical point, prompting international calls for renewed focus on the accord.
The Rising Tide of Violence
The most alarming indicator of the current crisis is the rapid expansion of illegal armed groups. According to official government data presented to legislators, the number of individuals involved in these illicit organizations has nearly doubled in four years, rising from approximately 15,000 in 2022 to an estimated 28,000 today.
This surge in personnel has directly translated into increased instability. In regions such as Cauca, communities are once again trapped in a cycle of fear. Mr. Jenča specifically highlighted the tragic murders of civil society leaders María Ovidia Palechor and James Flor on September 1, 2026. These killings are not isolated incidents but part of a systematic campaign of violence against those who dare to defend human rights and advocate for peace at the local level.
Furthermore, the vulnerability of children remains a major point of contention. The recruitment of minors into armed groups, particularly within ethnic and indigenous communities, represents a devastating blow to the long-term prospects of peace. Women, too, remain primary targets of intimidation and violence, creating a climate of terror that prevents the full exercise of civil rights.
Reintegration: A Testament to Resilience
Despite the deteriorating security situation, the commitment to peace among former combatants remains surprisingly resilient. More than 11,000 former FARC-EP members are currently engaged in formal reintegration processes. This effort has manifested in the creation of over 6,000 productive projects and 300 cooperatives across the country, spanning diverse sectors such as sustainable agriculture, ecotourism, trade, and textiles.
These projects serve as more than just a source of income; they are vital nodes of social cohesion. By involving both former combatants and conflict victims in shared economic ventures, these initiatives are successfully fostering a fragile but essential process of reconciliation. Mr. Jenča noted that tourism initiatives, in particular, have begun to revitalize local economies that were once stagnant due to the specter of war.
However, these gains are constantly threatened by a lack of physical security. Since the signing of the agreement in 2016, 501 former combatants have been murdered. The most recent tragedy occurred on September 22 in Cesar, serving as a grim reminder that the choice to lay down arms carries a heavy, sometimes fatal, cost.
Official Responses and Strategic Imperatives
The Security Council heard that the path forward requires a shift from reactive security measures to proactive, systemic development. Mr. Jenča outlined three pillars essential for the next phase of the peace process:
- Economic Empowerment: Expanding legitimate economic opportunities in conflict-affected regions is the only way to offer an alternative to the lure of illegal armed groups.
- Public Service Expansion: The state must ensure that its presence in rural areas is felt through schools, hospitals, and basic infrastructure, rather than solely through military operations.
- Institutional Strengthening: Local government institutions must be bolstered to withstand the influence of criminal networks that seek to capture local resources.
The UN Verification Mission remains committed to acting as a bridge between the government and civil society. By leveraging the trust built over the last ten years, the mission aims to provide the necessary oversight to ensure that state policies effectively reach the most isolated communities.
Implications for Colombia and the Region
Colombia has officially entered "a new political chapter," as described by the UN envoy. This period is defined by a tension between the exhaustion of the population with decades of conflict and the persistent ability of criminal networks to exploit structural weaknesses.
The international community is now tasked with a difficult choice: to remain passive observers or to deepen their engagement. The implications of a failed peace process in Colombia extend far beyond its borders. A resurgence of full-scale conflict would likely trigger a massive humanitarian crisis, exacerbate regional migration patterns, and strengthen transnational criminal organizations that profit from drug trafficking and illicit mining.
As the Security Council deliberations concluded, the consensus was clear: "sustained international engagement" is not a luxury but a necessity. The peace agreement is not merely a document; it is a promise made to the victims of the past and the generations of the future.
The resilience of the 11,000 former combatants who continue to trade rifles for cooperatives is a testament to the fact that the desire for peace is deeply rooted in the Colombian people. However, that desire cannot be sustained by willpower alone. Without a tangible improvement in security and a significant increase in the reach of the state, the progress of the last decade risks being swallowed by the rising tide of violence.
As the international community monitors the situation, the message from the UN is unequivocal: the 2016 deal cannot be allowed to falter. The cost of failure is too high, and the potential for a peaceful, prosperous Colombia is too valuable to lose.
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Evan Lee Salim
